Scenario planning provides a framework in which to make sound decisions in the face of the unexpected. Scenarios are plausible, compelling yet surprising stories about the future, weaving together the external forces of change in the form of a storyline.
The core of the scenario process is a thorough research of long term trends, determining which are predictable and which are uncertain, deciding which uncertainties are most influential, and basing the scenarios of the future on those uncertainties.
Scenarios do not predict events, but instead allow executives to test strategies and decisions against a range of possible, often divergent, outcomes. Scenarios thus engage the organization in an ongoing strategic conversation about its future and give executives better contextual awareness, clarity and confidence to make decisions today.